Vink

Calculator · Trading math #1

5 losses in a row. Is your strategy broken? Check the odds at your win rate.

Set your win rate and the streak that worries you. The dots are one run of trades; shuffle them to see another.

In these 100: longest losing run 5

81%

of runs of 100 trades contain 5 or more losses in a row

If each trade is independent of the last, 5 losses in a row shows up in 81% of runs of 100 trades at a 50% win rate.

The math

Each trade loses with the chance 1 − win rate. The calculator counts every way the trades can fall and adds up the ones that hold a run of losses at least as long as yours. That assumes each trade is independent of the last. If yours aren’t (the same setup in the same market on the same day), streaks can run longer.

Your own number

Vink works this out from your own trades. From one screenshot each.

Log your trades in Vink and Stats answers “Is this drawdown normal?” with the longest losing streak to expect in 100 trades, worked out from your own results.

Try it on your own chartNo account needed.
Vink
Drop a TradingView screenshot, or paste it⌘V
Stop loss 4606.81Entry 4600.76Target 4588.66screenshot.png
New tradeFilling the trade
Instrument
XAUUSD
Direction
SHORT
Timeframe
15M
Entry
4600.76
Stop loss
4606.81
Target
4588.66
Position size
2.23lots
Risk : reward
2.00
Outcome
OPEN
Illustrative · read from the chart

From the blog

Blog · 5 min readPosition sizing: how much to risk per trade, and how to size from your stop-lossRead it →Blog · 6 min readThe daily loss limit, and why setting it is not the hard partRead it →Blog · 7 min readRotating trades across prop accounts: the same losses, without losing the accountRead it →

More calculators

Risk per tradeHow big should your position be?Risk ÷ what the stop-loss costs on 1 lot: $100 with a 25-pip stop-loss on EURUSD is 0.40 lots.Work it out →Trading math #2How often do you need to win?1 ÷ (1 + R): 50% at 1:1, 33% at 1:2, 25% at 1:3.Work it out →Prop rulesHow many losses does your daily limit allow?5% daily limit ÷ 1% per trade = five full losses today.Work it out →Trading mathHow much do you need to win back a loss?−10% needs +11%, −20% needs +25%, −50% needs +100%.Work it out →

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